Púchov 0–1 Slavoj Trebišov: Result & Stats

Púchov

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavoj Trebišov

11/12/2022

2. liga · Round 17Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Púchov52%

×Draw24%

Slavoj Trebišov24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PúchovExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Púchov

1.73

Slavoj Trebišov

1.10

Púchov creates 57% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 69 away

1.46

creates per match

0.97

1.24

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Púchov

1.46

Slavoj Trebišov

0.97

allows per match

Púchov

1.24

Slavoj Trebišov

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Púchov+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Púchov ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Púchov or draw

76%

Púchov or Slavoj Trebišov

76%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

48%

Winning margin

Púchov wins by 2+

28%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Púchov 1+ goals

82%

Púchov 2+ goals

52%

Púchov 3+ goals

25%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

67%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

30%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Púchov (draw refunded)

68%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Púchov at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 95 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Púchov attack 1.46 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.73

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Púchov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Púchov scores more

52%

level

24%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

24%

Púchov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Púchov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff