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Púchov vs Považská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Púchov
Púchov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
9/6/20242. liga2. liga · Round 3Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Púchov43%
×Draw25%
Považská Bystrica32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Púchov
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.27

Púchov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 58 away

creates per match

Púchov
1.46
Považská Bystrica
1.29

allows per match

Púchov
1.24
Považská Bystrica
1.55

finishing

Púchov+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Púchov ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Púchov or draw
68%
Púchov or Považská Bystrica
75%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
57%

Winning margin

Púchov wins by 2+
21%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Púchov 1+ goals
78%
Púchov 2+ goals
44%
Púchov 3+ goals
19%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
72%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
36%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Púchov (draw refunded)
57%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Púchov at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 95 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Púchov attack 1.46 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Púchov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Púchov scores more
43%
level
25%
Považská Bystrica scores more
32%

Púchov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Púchov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Púchov 1–1 Považská Bystrica

Púchov and Považská Bystrica drew 1-1 in 2. liga on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Púchov.