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Púchov vs Malženice — 2. liga 2019

Púchov
Púchov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Malženice
Malženice
9/28/20242. liga2. liga · Round 9Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Púchov49%
×Draw24%
Malženice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Púchov
1.67
Malženice
1.19

Púchov creates 40% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 43 away

creates per match

Púchov
1.46
Malženice
1.14

allows per match

Púchov
1.24
Malženice
1.88

finishing

Púchov+0.00on par
Malženice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Púchov ↓

Malženice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Púchov or draw
73%
Púchov or Malženice
76%
Draw or Malženice
51%

Winning margin

Púchov wins by 2+
26%
Malženice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Púchov 1+ goals
81%
Púchov 2+ goals
50%
Púchov 3+ goals
23%
Malženice 1+ goals
70%
Malženice 2+ goals
33%
Malženice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Púchov (draw refunded)
64%
Malženice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Púchov at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 95 matches

Malženice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Púchov attack 1.46 + Malženice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Malženice attack 1.14 + Púchov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Púchov scores more
49%
level
24%
Malženice scores more
27%

Púchov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Púchov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Púchov 1–3 Malženice

Malženice beat Púchov 3-1 in 2. liga on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Púchov.