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Puch vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Puch
Puch
CANC
15:00
Zell am See
Zell am See
5/9/2020Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 22Waldstadion Puch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Puch28%
×Draw22%
Zell am See50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puch
1.40
Zell am See
1.95

Zell am See creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 8 away

creates per match

Puch
1.43
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Puch
2.28
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Puch+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puch ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Puch or draw
50%
Puch or Zell am See
78%
Draw or Zell am See
72%

Winning margin

Puch wins by 2+
12%
Zell am See wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Puch 1+ goals
75%
Puch 2+ goals
41%
Puch 3+ goals
17%
Zell am See 1+ goals
86%
Zell am See 2+ goals
58%
Zell am See 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Puch (draw refunded)
36%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puch at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.28 · 82 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puch attack 1.43 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Puch defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Puch scores more
28%
level
22%
Zell am See scores more
50%

Zell am See at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zell am See will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Puch host Zell am See

May 9, 2020: Puch take on Zell am See in Landesliga - Salzburg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Puch host Zell am See at Waldstadion Puch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.