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Puch vs Altenmarkt — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Puch
Puch
CANC
14:00
Altenmarkt
Altenmarkt
4/3/2021Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 16Waldstadion Puch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Puch47%
×Draw21%
Altenmarkt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puch
2.20
Altenmarkt
1.83

Puch creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Puch
1.43
Altenmarkt
1.38

allows per match

Puch
2.28
Altenmarkt
2.97

finishing

Puch+0.00on par
Altenmarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puch ↓

Altenmarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Puch or draw
67%
Puch or Altenmarkt
79%
Draw or Altenmarkt
53%

Winning margin

Puch wins by 2+
27%
Altenmarkt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puch 1+ goals
89%
Puch 2+ goals
64%
Puch 3+ goals
37%
Altenmarkt 1+ goals
84%
Altenmarkt 2+ goals
54%
Altenmarkt 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Puch (draw refunded)
59%
Altenmarkt (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puch at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.28 · 82 matches

Altenmarkt away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puch attack 1.43 + Altenmarkt defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.20

Altenmarkt attack 1.38 + Puch defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Puch scores more
47%
level
21%
Altenmarkt scores more
33%

Puch at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Puch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puch face Altenmarkt (Landesliga - Salzburg)

Landesliga - Salzburg returns with Puch hosting Altenmarkt. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Puch host Altenmarkt at Waldstadion Puch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.