PTT Rayong 3–1 Samut Sakhon FC: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

3 – 1

Samut Sakhon FC

6/9/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 16PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong68%

×Draw17%

Samut Sakhon FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchSamut Sakhon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.14

PTT Rayong

2.62

Samut Sakhon FC

1.14

PTT Rayong creates 130% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

2.57

creates per match

0.92

1.36

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Samut Sakhon FC

0.92

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Samut Sakhon FC

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Samut Sakhon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Samut Sakhon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

85%

PTT Rayong or Samut Sakhon FC

83%

Draw or Samut Sakhon FC

32%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

47%

Samut Sakhon FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

93%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

73%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

48%

Samut Sakhon FC 1+ goals

68%

Samut Sakhon FC 2+ goals

32%

Samut Sakhon FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

82%

Samut Sakhon FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Samut Sakhon FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Samut Sakhon FC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.62

Samut Sakhon FC attack 0.92 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

68%

level

17%

Samut Sakhon FC scores more

15%

PTT Rayong at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff