PTT Rayong 3–2 Rayong FC: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

3 – 2

Rayong FC

2/9/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 1PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong51%

×Draw22%

Rayong FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchRayong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.41

PTT Rayong

2.01

Rayong FC

1.41

PTT Rayong creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 84 away

2.57

creates per match

1.45

1.36

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Rayong FC

1.45

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Rayong FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Rayong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

73%

PTT Rayong or Rayong FC

78%

Draw or Rayong FC

49%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

30%

Rayong FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

87%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

59%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

32%

Rayong FC 1+ goals

76%

Rayong FC 2+ goals

41%

Rayong FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

66%

Rayong FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Rayong FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.01

Rayong FC attack 1.45 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

51%

level

22%

Rayong FC scores more

27%

PTT Rayong at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff