PTT Rayong 1–3 Ang Thong FC: Result & Stats

PTT Rayong

FT

1 – 3

Ang Thong FC

9/15/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 28PTT Stadium (Rayong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PTT Rayong62%

×Draw20%

Ang Thong FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PTT RayongExpected goals in this matchAng Thong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.15

PTT Rayong

2.25

Ang Thong FC

1.15

PTT Rayong creates 96% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.57

creates per match

0.93

1.36

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

PTT Rayong

2.57

Ang Thong FC

0.93

allows per match

PTT Rayong

1.36

Ang Thong FC

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Ang Thong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTT Rayong ↓

Ang Thong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

PTT Rayong or draw

81%

PTT Rayong or Ang Thong FC

80%

Draw or Ang Thong FC

38%

Winning margin

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

39%

Ang Thong FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

89%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

65%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

39%

Ang Thong FC 1+ goals

68%

Ang Thong FC 2+ goals

32%

Ang Thong FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

77%

Ang Thong FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTT Rayong at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Ang Thong FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTT Rayong attack 2.57 + Ang Thong FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ang Thong FC attack 0.93 + PTT Rayong defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PTT Rayong scores more

62%

level

20%

Ang Thong FC scores more

19%

PTT Rayong at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PTT Rayong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff