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PTE-PEAC vs Mohácsi TE — NB III - Southwest 2019

PTE-PEAC
PTE-PEAC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mohácsi TE
Mohácsi TE
11/18/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 16PMFC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PTE-PEAC46%
×Draw25%
Mohácsi TE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PTE-PEAC
1.54
Mohácsi TE
1.17

PTE-PEAC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

PTE-PEAC
1.07
Mohácsi TE
0.73

allows per match

PTE-PEAC
1.60
Mohácsi TE
2.00

finishing

PTE-PEAC+0.00on par
Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTE-PEAC ↓

Mohácsi TE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

PTE-PEAC or draw
71%
PTE-PEAC or Mohácsi TE
75%
Draw or Mohácsi TE
54%

Winning margin

PTE-PEAC wins by 2+
23%
Mohácsi TE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PTE-PEAC 1+ goals
79%
PTE-PEAC 2+ goals
45%
PTE-PEAC 3+ goals
20%
Mohácsi TE 1+ goals
69%
Mohácsi TE 2+ goals
33%
Mohácsi TE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)
61%
Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTE-PEAC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTE-PEAC attack 1.07 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + PTE-PEAC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PTE-PEAC scores more
46%
level
25%
Mohácsi TE scores more
29%

PTE-PEAC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PTE-PEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PTE-PEAC vs Mohácsi TE

PTE-PEAC beat Mohácsi TE 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at PMFC Stadion in Pécs.