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PTE-PEAC vs Gárdony — NB III - Southwest 2019

PTE-PEAC
PTE-PEAC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gárdony
Gárdony
3/24/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21PMFC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

PTE-PEAC48%
×Draw24%
Gárdony28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PTE-PEAC
1.71
Gárdony
1.24

PTE-PEAC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

PTE-PEAC
1.07
Gárdony
0.88

allows per match

PTE-PEAC
1.60
Gárdony
2.35

finishing

PTE-PEAC+0.00on par
Gárdony+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PTE-PEAC ↓

Gárdony →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

PTE-PEAC or draw
72%
PTE-PEAC or Gárdony
76%
Draw or Gárdony
52%

Winning margin

PTE-PEAC wins by 2+
26%
Gárdony wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

PTE-PEAC 1+ goals
82%
PTE-PEAC 2+ goals
51%
PTE-PEAC 3+ goals
24%
Gárdony 1+ goals
71%
Gárdony 2+ goals
35%
Gárdony 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PTE-PEAC (draw refunded)
63%
Gárdony (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PTE-PEAC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Gárdony away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PTE-PEAC attack 1.07 + Gárdony defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gárdony attack 0.88 + PTE-PEAC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PTE-PEAC scores more
48%
level
24%
Gárdony scores more
28%

PTE-PEAC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PTE-PEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PTE-PEAC vs Gárdony

PTE-PEAC and Gárdony drew 2-2 in NB III - Southwest on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at PMFC Stadion in Pécs.