PSV Wellingara 1–2 Waa Banjul Football

PSV Wellingara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Waa Banjul Football

3/26/2023

GFA League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara27%

×Draw28%

Waa Banjul Football45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV WellingaraExpected goals in this matchWaa Banjul Football

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.29

PSV Wellingara

0.92

Waa Banjul Football

1.29

Waa Banjul Football creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

1.00

creates per match

0.59

2.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

PSV Wellingara

1.00

Waa Banjul Football

0.59

allows per match

PSV Wellingara

2.00

Waa Banjul Football

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Waa Banjul Football+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Waa Banjul Football →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw

55%

PSV Wellingara or Waa Banjul Football

72%

Draw or Waa Banjul Football

73%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+

9%

Waa Banjul Football wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals

60%

PSV Wellingara 2+ goals

23%

PSV Wellingara 3+ goals

7%

Waa Banjul Football 1+ goals

72%

Waa Banjul Football 2+ goals

37%

Waa Banjul Football 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)

37%

Waa Banjul Football (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Waa Banjul Football away — creates 0.59, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Waa Banjul Football defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Waa Banjul Football attack 0.59 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more

27%

level

28%

Waa Banjul Football scores more

45%

Waa Banjul Football at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waa Banjul Football will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff