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PSV Wellingara vs Samger — GFA League 2020

PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
FT
2 – 2
Samger
Samger
6/23/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara29%
×Draw27%
Samger44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Wellingara
1.05
Samger
1.35

Samger creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

PSV Wellingara
1.00
Samger
0.70

allows per match

PSV Wellingara
2.00
Samger
1.10

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par
Samger+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Samger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw
56%
PSV Wellingara or Samger
73%
Draw or Samger
71%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
11%
Samger wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
65%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
28%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
9%
Samger 1+ goals
74%
Samger 2+ goals
39%
Samger 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
40%
Samger (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Samger away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Samger defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Samger attack 0.70 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more
29%
level
27%
Samger scores more
44%

Samger at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Samger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: PSV Wellingara 2–2 Samger

PSV Wellingara and Samger drew 2-2 in GFA League on June 23, 2023.