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PSV Wellingara vs Marimoo — GFA League 2020

PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Marimoo
Marimoo
6/10/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara27%
×Draw26%
Marimoo47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Wellingara
1.02
Marimoo
1.45

Marimoo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

PSV Wellingara
1.00
Marimoo
0.89

allows per match

PSV Wellingara
2.00
Marimoo
1.03

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par
Marimoo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Marimoo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw
53%
PSV Wellingara or Marimoo
74%
Draw or Marimoo
73%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
10%
Marimoo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
64%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
27%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
8%
Marimoo 1+ goals
77%
Marimoo 2+ goals
42%
Marimoo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
36%
Marimoo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Marimoo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Marimoo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Marimoo attack 0.89 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more
27%
level
26%
Marimoo scores more
47%

Marimoo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Marimoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Wellingara vs Marimoo

Marimoo beat PSV Wellingara 2-1 in GFA League on June 10, 2023.