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PSV Wellingara vs Banjul — GFA League 2020

PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Banjul
Banjul
J. Wazza 50'
J. Ous 39'
Unknown 89', 86', 9'
3/15/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara28%
×Draw27%
Banjul45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Wellingara
1.02
Banjul
1.38

Banjul creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

PSV Wellingara
1.00
Banjul
0.75

allows per match

PSV Wellingara
2.00
Banjul
1.04

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par
Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw
55%
PSV Wellingara or Banjul
73%
Draw or Banjul
72%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
10%
Banjul wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
64%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
27%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
8%
Banjul 1+ goals
75%
Banjul 2+ goals
40%
Banjul 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
38%
Banjul (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Banjul away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Banjul defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Banjul attack 0.75 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more
28%
level
27%
Banjul scores more
45%

Banjul at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
39'
J. Ous
50'
J. Wazza
86'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Wellingara vs Banjul

Banjul beat PSV Wellingara 3-2 in GFA League on March 15, 2023.

Goals: ? (9', 86', 89'), J. Ous (39'), J. Wazza (50').