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PSV U19 vs Lens U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

PSV U19
PSV U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lens U19
Lens U19
11/8/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PSV U1942%
×Draw27%
Lens U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV U19
1.33
Lens U19
1.11

PSV U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

PSV U19
2.00
Lens U19
1.00

allows per match

PSV U19
1.22
Lens U19
0.67

finishing

PSV U19+0.00on par
Lens U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV U19 ↓

Lens U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PSV U19 or draw
69%
PSV U19 or Lens U19
73%
Draw or Lens U19
58%

Winning margin

PSV U19 wins by 2+
19%
Lens U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PSV U19 1+ goals
74%
PSV U19 2+ goals
38%
PSV U19 3+ goals
15%
Lens U19 1+ goals
67%
Lens U19 2+ goals
30%
Lens U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PSV U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Lens U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Lens U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV U19 attack 2.00 + Lens U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lens U19 attack 1.00 + PSV U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

PSV U19 scores more
42%
level
27%
Lens U19 scores more
31%

PSV U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PSV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV U19 vs Lens U19

PSV U19 beat Lens U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.