PSV/Eindhoven W 4–0 PEC Zwolle W: Result & Stats

PSV/Eindhoven W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

PEC Zwolle W

10/19/2024

Eredivisie Women · Round 4PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

PSV/Eindhoven W69%

×Draw18%

PEC Zwolle W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV/Eindhoven WExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.96

PSV/Eindhoven W

2.38

PEC Zwolle W

0.96

PSV/Eindhoven W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

2.79

creates per match

1.18

0.74

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

PSV/Eindhoven W

2.79

PEC Zwolle W

1.18

allows per match

PSV/Eindhoven W

0.74

PEC Zwolle W

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSV/Eindhoven W+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV/Eindhoven W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

PSV/Eindhoven W or draw

86%

PSV/Eindhoven W or PEC Zwolle W

82%

Draw or PEC Zwolle W

31%

Winning margin

PSV/Eindhoven W wins by 2+

46%

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

PSV/Eindhoven W 1+ goals

91%

PSV/Eindhoven W 2+ goals

68%

PSV/Eindhoven W 3+ goals

42%

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

62%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

25%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

PSV/Eindhoven W (draw refunded)

83%

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV/Eindhoven W at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV/Eindhoven W attack 2.79 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.38

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.18 + PSV/Eindhoven W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

PSV/Eindhoven W scores more

69%

level

18%

PEC Zwolle W scores more

14%

PSV/Eindhoven W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "PSV/Eindhoven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff