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PSV Eindhoven vs Telstar — League #90 2026

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhovenadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
J. Veerman 61'
Bruma 32'
Ö. Aktas 17'
1/20/2022League #90League #90 · Round of 16Philips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PSV Eindhoven62%
×Draw20%
Telstar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.20
Telstar
1.10

PSV Eindhoven creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.40
Telstar
1.20

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.00
Telstar
2.00

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
82%
PSV Eindhoven or Telstar
80%
Draw or Telstar
38%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
39%
Telstar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
89%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
64%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
37%
Telstar 1+ goals
67%
Telstar 2+ goals
30%
Telstar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
77%
Telstar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.40 + Telstar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Telstar attack 1.20 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
62%
level
20%
Telstar scores more
18%

PSV Eindhoven at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
Ö. AktasTelstarTelstar · D
8.6

Match Events

17'
Ö. Aktas↳ S. van Doorm
32'
Bruma↳ J. Veerman
46'
R. Dōan← Bruma
46'
C. Gakpo← F. Fofana
61'
J. Veerman↳ P. Mwene
65'
E. Zahavi← Y. Vertessen
65'
M. Romero← M. Götze
68'
R. Vlijter← C. Dijkstra
77'
Giovanni← G. van Velzen
78'
S. Akoy← Y. Zakir
81'
R. Smit← O. Kökçü
90+1'
M. van Ginkel← J. Veerman

Possession

57%PSV

Shots

19PSV

Pass accuracy

52%PSV

Statistics

PSVTelstar
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots10
6Corners6
7Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target2
10Off Target5
2Blocked3
11Inside Box8
8Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
505Total Passes382
396Accurate Passes273
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls7
2Offsides1

League #90: PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Telstar

PSV Eindhoven beat Telstar 2-1 in League #90 on January 20, 2022.

Goals: Ö. Aktas (17'), Bruma (32'), J. Veerman (61').

PSV Eindhoven controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.