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PSV Eindhoven vs Raków Częstochowa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
4 – 2
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
12/10/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3PSV Campus De Herdgang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PSV Eindhoven53%
×Draw20%
Raków Częstochowa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.42
Raków Częstochowa
1.73

PSV Eindhoven creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.10
Raków Częstochowa
1.75

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.70
Raków Częstochowa
2.75

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
72%
PSV Eindhoven or Raków Częstochowa
80%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
47%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
33%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
91%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
69%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
43%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
82%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
52%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
66%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.10 + Raków Częstochowa defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.42

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.75 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
53%
level
20%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
28%

PSV Eindhoven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Eindhoven vs Raków Częstochowa

PSV Eindhoven beat Raków Częstochowa 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eindhoven.