PSV Eindhoven 2–2 Hamburger SV: Result & Stats

PSV Eindhoven

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Hamburger SV

1/7/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 1Marbella Football Center - Sur 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PSV Eindhoven59%

×Draw18%

Hamburger SV23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSV EindhovenExpected goals in this matchHamburger SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.73

PSV Eindhoven

2.77

Hamburger SV

1.73

PSV Eindhoven creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

2.55

creates per match

1.63

1.82

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven

2.55

Hamburger SV

1.63

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven

1.82

Hamburger SV

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

Hamburger SV →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw

77%

PSV Eindhoven or Hamburger SV

82%

Draw or Hamburger SV

41%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

39%

Hamburger SV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

94%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

76%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

51%

Hamburger SV 1+ goals

82%

Hamburger SV 2+ goals

52%

Hamburger SV 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

72%

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 1.63, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.55 + Hamburger SV defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Hamburger SV attack 1.63 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more

59%

level

18%

Hamburger SV scores more

23%

PSV Eindhoven at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff