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PSV Eindhoven vs FC Basel 1893 — UEFA Champions League 2026

PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
7/23/2019UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundPhilips Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PSV Eindhoven60%
×Draw20%
FC Basel 189321%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Eindhoven
2.29
FC Basel 1893
1.29

PSV Eindhoven creates 78% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

PSV Eindhoven
2.07
FC Basel 1893
1.00

allows per match

PSV Eindhoven
1.57
FC Basel 1893
2.50

finishing

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par
FC Basel 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Eindhoven ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PSV Eindhoven or draw
79%
PSV Eindhoven or FC Basel 1893
80%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
40%

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
38%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
90%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
66%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
40%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
72%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
37%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
74%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Eindhoven at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.07 + FC Basel 1893 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

PSV Eindhoven scores more
60%
level
20%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
21%

PSV Eindhoven at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: PSV Eindhoven 3–2 FC Basel 1893

PSV Eindhoven beat FC Basel 1893 3-2 in UEFA Champions League on July 23, 2019.

The match was played at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven.