PSTC Procopense 0–1 Patriotas: Result & Stats

PSTC Procopense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Patriotas

5/10/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Alvaro Alves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PSTC Procopense44%

×Draw35%

Patriotas22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSTC ProcopenseExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.60

PSTC Procopense

0.98

Patriotas

0.60

PSTC Procopense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.63

creates per match

0.33

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

PSTC Procopense

0.63

Patriotas

0.33

allows per match

PSTC Procopense

0.88

Patriotas

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSTC Procopense ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

PSTC Procopense or draw

78%

PSTC Procopense or Patriotas

65%

Draw or Patriotas

56%

Winning margin

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

17%

Patriotas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

62%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

26%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

8%

Patriotas 1+ goals

45%

Patriotas 2+ goals

12%

Patriotas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

67%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSTC Procopense at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSTC Procopense attack 0.63 + Patriotas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Patriotas attack 0.33 + PSTC Procopense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PSTC Procopense scores more

44%

level

35%

Patriotas scores more

22%

PSTC Procopense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff