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PSTC Procopense vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2023

PSTC Procopense
PSTC Procopense
FT
2 – 1
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
4/24/2022Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PSTC Procopense39%
×Draw28%
Foz Do Iguacu32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSTC Procopense
1.21
Foz Do Iguacu
1.06

PSTC Procopense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

PSTC Procopense
1.13
Foz Do Iguacu
1.07

allows per match

PSTC Procopense
1.06
Foz Do Iguacu
1.29

finishing

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSTC Procopense ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

PSTC Procopense or draw
68%
PSTC Procopense or Foz Do Iguacu
72%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
61%

Winning margin

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+
17%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals
70%
PSTC Procopense 2+ goals
34%
PSTC Procopense 3+ goals
12%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
65%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
29%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)
55%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSTC Procopense at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSTC Procopense attack 1.13 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.07 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PSTC Procopense scores more
39%
level
28%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
32%

PSTC Procopense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: PSTC Procopense 2–1 Foz Do Iguacu

PSTC Procopense beat Foz Do Iguacu 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Ubirajara Medeiros in Cornélio Procópio, Paraná.