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PSNI vs Ballyclare Comrades — League #407 2026

PSNI
PSNI
FT
2 – 6
Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
Unknown 76'
O'Neill 40'
S. McIlveen 87' (pen)
J. McNeill 84'
A. Gray 58'
G. Donnelly 57'
J. Tully 30', 20'
12/14/2019League #407League #407 · Round 21Newforge Lane (Belfast)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PSNI35%
×Draw20%
Ballyclare Comrades44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSNI
1.97
Ballyclare Comrades
2.21

Ballyclare Comrades creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

PSNI
2.00
Ballyclare Comrades
1.71

allows per match

PSNI
2.71
Ballyclare Comrades
1.94

finishing

PSNI+0.00on par
Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSNI ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

PSNI or draw
56%
PSNI or Ballyclare Comrades
80%
Draw or Ballyclare Comrades
65%

Winning margin

PSNI wins by 2+
19%
Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

PSNI 1+ goals
86%
PSNI 2+ goals
58%
PSNI 3+ goals
31%
Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
89%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
65%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

PSNI (draw refunded)
44%
Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSNI at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSNI attack 2.00 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.71 + PSNI defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PSNI scores more
35%
level
20%
Ballyclare Comrades scores more
44%

Ballyclare Comrades at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ballyclare Comrades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Tully
30'
J. Tully
40'
O'Neill
57'
G. Donnelly
58'
A. Gray
76'
84'
J. McNeill
87'
S. McIlveenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSNI vs Ballyclare Comrades

Ballyclare Comrades beat PSNI 6-2 in League #407 on December 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Tully (20', 30'), O'Neill (40'), G. Donnelly (57'), A. Gray (58'), ? (76'), J. McNeill (84'), S. McIlveen (87' pen).

The match was played at Newforge Lane (Belfast).