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PSM Makassar vs Yangon United — AFC Cup 2018

PSM Makassar
PSM Makassar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yangon United
Yangon United
8/23/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Play-off RoundStadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

PSM Makassar50%
×Draw20%
Yangon United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSM Makassar
2.32
Yangon United
1.80

PSM Makassar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

PSM Makassar
2.31
Yangon United
2.22

allows per match

PSM Makassar
1.38
Yangon United
2.33

finishing

PSM Makassar+0.00on par
Yangon United+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSM Makassar ↓

Yangon United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

PSM Makassar or draw
70%
PSM Makassar or Yangon United
80%
Draw or Yangon United
50%

Winning margin

PSM Makassar wins by 2+
30%
Yangon United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PSM Makassar 1+ goals
90%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
67%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
40%
Yangon United 1+ goals
83%
Yangon United 2+ goals
54%
Yangon United 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
62%
Yangon United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSM Makassar at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Yangon United away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSM Makassar attack 2.31 + Yangon United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.32

Yangon United attack 2.22 + PSM Makassar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PSM Makassar scores more
50%
level
20%
Yangon United scores more
30%

PSM Makassar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: PSM Makassar 4–0 Yangon United

PSM Makassar beat Yangon United 4-0 in AFC Cup on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta in Gianyar.