PSM Makassar 3–1 Shan United: Result & Stats

PSM Makassar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shan United

2/26/2020

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion Madya Atletik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PSM Makassar71%

×Draw16%

Shan United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSM MakassarExpected goals in this matchShan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.10

PSM Makassar

2.75

Shan United

1.10

PSM Makassar creates 150% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.31

creates per match

0.82

1.38

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

PSM Makassar

2.31

Shan United

0.82

allows per match

PSM Makassar

1.38

Shan United

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Shan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSM Makassar ↓

Shan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

PSM Makassar or draw

87%

PSM Makassar or Shan United

84%

Draw or Shan United

29%

Winning margin

PSM Makassar wins by 2+

50%

Shan United wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

PSM Makassar 1+ goals

93%

PSM Makassar 2+ goals

75%

PSM Makassar 3+ goals

51%

Shan United 1+ goals

67%

Shan United 2+ goals

30%

Shan United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)

85%

Shan United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSM Makassar at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Shan United away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSM Makassar attack 2.31 + Shan United defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.75

Shan United attack 0.82 + PSM Makassar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

PSM Makassar scores more

71%

level

16%

Shan United scores more

13%

PSM Makassar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff