PSM Makassar 3–1 Hougang United: Result & Stats

PSM Makassar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hougang United

10/25/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

PSM Makassar60%

×Draw19%

Hougang United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSM MakassarExpected goals in this matchHougang United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.40

PSM Makassar

2.44

Hougang United

1.40

PSM Makassar creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

2.31

creates per match

1.43

1.38

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

PSM Makassar

2.31

Hougang United

1.43

allows per match

PSM Makassar

1.38

Hougang United

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Hougang United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSM Makassar ↓

Hougang United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

PSM Makassar or draw

79%

PSM Makassar or Hougang United

81%

Draw or Hougang United

40%

Winning margin

PSM Makassar wins by 2+

39%

Hougang United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

PSM Makassar 1+ goals

91%

PSM Makassar 2+ goals

70%

PSM Makassar 3+ goals

43%

Hougang United 1+ goals

75%

Hougang United 2+ goals

41%

Hougang United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)

74%

Hougang United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSM Makassar at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Hougang United away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSM Makassar attack 2.31 + Hougang United defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.44

Hougang United attack 1.43 + PSM Makassar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

PSM Makassar scores more

60%

level

19%

Hougang United scores more

21%

PSM Makassar at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff