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PS Kemi Kings vs SJK Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
5/23/2021Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 3Keskuskenttä TN Keminmaa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

PS Kemi Kings24%
×Draw20%
SJK Akatemia56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.38
SJK Akatemia
2.20

SJK Akatemia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.63
SJK Akatemia
2.18

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
2.21
SJK Akatemia
1.12

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
44%
PS Kemi Kings or SJK Akatemia
80%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
76%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
10%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
75%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
40%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
16%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
89%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
64%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
30%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 1.63 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

SJK Akatemia attack 2.18 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
24%
level
20%
SJK Akatemia scores more
56%

SJK Akatemia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SJK Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: PS Kemi Kings 0–5 SJK Akatemia

SJK Akatemia beat PS Kemi Kings 5-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Keskuskenttä TN Keminmaa in Keminmaa.