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PS Kemi Kings vs Rops — Veikkausliiga 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rops
Rops
6/21/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 15Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto (Kemi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PS Kemi Kings38%
×Draw27%
Rops35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.26
Rops
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 43 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
0.94
Rops
0.88

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.50
Rops
1.58

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
65%
PS Kemi Kings or Rops
73%
Draw or Rops
62%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
17%
Rops wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
72%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
36%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
13%
Rops 1+ goals
70%
Rops 2+ goals
33%
Rops 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
52%
Rops (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Rops away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.94 + Rops defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rops attack 0.88 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
38%
level
27%
Rops scores more
35%

PS Kemi Kings at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PS Kemi Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: PS Kemi Kings 0–1 Rops

Rops beat PS Kemi Kings 1-0 in Veikkausliiga on June 21, 2018.

The match was played at Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto (Kemi).