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PS Kemi Kings vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
KuPS
KuPS
7/29/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 21Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PS Kemi Kings23%
×Draw26%
KuPS51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
0.95
KuPS
1.55

KuPS creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 115 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
0.94
KuPS
1.60

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.50
KuPS
0.97

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

KuPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
49%
PS Kemi Kings or KuPS
74%
Draw or KuPS
77%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
8%
KuPS wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
61%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
25%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
7%
KuPS 1+ goals
79%
KuPS 2+ goals
46%
KuPS 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
31%
KuPS (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

KuPS away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.94 + KuPS defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

KuPS attack 1.60 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
23%
level
26%
KuPS scores more
51%

KuPS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KuPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: PS Kemi Kings 3–2 KuPS

PS Kemi Kings beat KuPS 3-2 in Veikkausliiga on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto in Kemi.