PS Kemi Kings 4–1 JS Hercules: Result & Stats

PS Kemi Kings

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

JS Hercules

E. Samson 81', 45'

S. Jovović 66'

C. Edeh 59'

M. Adeniran 64' (pen)

8/27/2020

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 10Sauvosaaren Takakenttä N

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

PS Kemi Kings38%

×Draw21%

JS Hercules40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PS Kemi KingsExpected goals in this matchJS Hercules

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.94

PS Kemi Kings

1.88

JS Hercules

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

1.63

creates per match

1.68

2.21

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings

1.63

JS Hercules

1.68

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings

2.21

JS Hercules

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

JS Hercules →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw

60%

PS Kemi Kings or JS Hercules

79%

Draw or JS Hercules

62%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+

20%

JS Hercules wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals

85%

PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals

56%

PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals

29%

JS Hercules 1+ goals

86%

JS Hercules 2+ goals

58%

JS Hercules 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)

49%

JS Hercules (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 1.63 + JS Hercules defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

JS Hercules attack 1.68 + PS Kemi Kings defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more

38%

level

21%

JS Hercules scores more

40%

JS Hercules at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

A. Raiha

24'

N. Maki

30'

M. Willock

32'

M. Adeniran

39'

S. Thurling← T. Kohonen

45'

E. Samson

59'

C. Edeh

64'

M. AdeniranPenalty

66'

S. Jovović

67'

C. Edeh

70'

J. Kilpeläinen← O. Heikkinen

76'

E. Koskela← N. Mäki

78'

J. Kurvinen← J. Pernu

81'

E. Samson

83'

J. Alatalo← T. Nisula

90+2'

J. Alaperä← V. Åhman

PS

JS

1

Patronen

14

Huhtiniem

18

▼

3

4

6

17

▼

Heikkinen

21

▼

Kohonen

11

Paldan

19

Welliing

10

⚽

12

20

24

16

3

⚽

Edeh

4

▼

Nisula

17

Ogbuefi

19

▼

Mäki

6

⚽2

Samson

22

⚽

Jovović

14

▼

Åhman

76'▲E. Koskela←▼N. Mäki

83'▲J. Alatalo←▼T. Nisula

90+2'▲J. Alaperä←▼V. Åhman

PS Kemi Kings substitutes

10Koskela25Alatalo7Alaperä1Ahola5Oikarinen15Kalasniemi

Manager: M. Isokangas

39'▲S. Thurling←▼T. Kohonen

70'▲J. Kilpeläinen←▼O. Heikkinen

78'▲J. Kurvinen←▼J. Pernu

JS Hercules substitutes

15Thurling20Kilpeläinen8Kurvinen71Kouva22Kovalainen16Hanhineva

Kakkonen - Lohko C: PS Kemi Kings 4–1 JS Hercules

PS Kemi Kings beat JS Hercules 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 27, 2020.

Goals: E. Samson (45', 81'), C. Edeh (59'), M. Adeniran (64' pen), S. Jovović (66').

The match was played at Sauvosaaren Takakenttä N in Kemi.

PS Kemi Kings vs JS Hercules — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko C: PS Kemi Kings 4–1 JS Hercules