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Przodkowo vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Przodkowo
Przodkowo
FT
3 – 0
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
11/11/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Przodkowo72%
×Draw16%
Mieszko Gniezno12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Przodkowo
2.70
Mieszko Gniezno
1.01

Przodkowo creates 167% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

creates per match

Przodkowo
1.16
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Przodkowo
1.60
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Przodkowo+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Przodkowo ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Przodkowo or draw
88%
Przodkowo or Mieszko Gniezno
84%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
28%

Winning margin

Przodkowo wins by 2+
51%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Przodkowo 1+ goals
93%
Przodkowo 2+ goals
75%
Przodkowo 3+ goals
50%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
64%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
27%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Przodkowo (draw refunded)
86%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Przodkowo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Przodkowo attack 1.16 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.70

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Przodkowo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Przodkowo scores more
72%
level
16%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
12%

Przodkowo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Przodkowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Przodkowo 3–0 Mieszko Gniezno

Przodkowo beat Mieszko Gniezno 3-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Przodkowo.