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Prva Iskra vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
2 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
9/16/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 6Stadion FK Prva Iskra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Prva Iskra44%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
1.39
Sindjelic Beograd
1.09

Prva Iskra creates 28% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 49 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
71%
Prva Iskra or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
56%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
21%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
75%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
40%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
16%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
66%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
30%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
60%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
44%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
29%

Prva Iskra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prva Iskra vs Sindjelic Beograd

Prva Iskra beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Prva Iskra in Barič.