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Prva Iskra vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
1 – 1
RAD
RAD
10/14/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion FK Prva Iskra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Prva Iskra62%
×Draw21%
RAD18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
2.07
RAD
1.00

Prva Iskra creates 107% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 15 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
RAD
2.73

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
82%
Prva Iskra or RAD
79%
Draw or RAD
38%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
38%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
87%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
61%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
34%
RAD 1+ goals
63%
RAD 2+ goals
26%
RAD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
78%
RAD (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.07

RAD attack 0.67 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
62%
level
21%
RAD scores more
18%

Prva Iskra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prva Iskra vs RAD

Prva Iskra and RAD drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Prva Iskra in Barič.