Prva Iskra 0–0 BASK: Result & Stats

Prva Iskra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BASK

11/15/2025

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Prva Iskra40%

×Draw28%

BASK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prva IskraExpected goals in this matchBASK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

Prva Iskra

1.27

BASK

1.12

Prva Iskra creates 13% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 90 away

1.41

creates per match

0.92

1.32

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Prva Iskra

1.41

BASK

0.92

allows per match

Prva Iskra

1.32

BASK

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par

BASK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

BASK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw

67%

Prva Iskra or BASK

72%

Draw or BASK

60%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+

18%

BASK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals

72%

Prva Iskra 2+ goals

36%

Prva Iskra 3+ goals

14%

BASK 1+ goals

67%

BASK 2+ goals

31%

BASK 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)

55%

BASK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

BASK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + BASK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

BASK attack 0.92 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prva Iskra scores more

40%

level

28%

BASK scores more

33%

Prva Iskra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff