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Prutz / Serfaus vs Union Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Prutz / Serfaus
Prutz / Serfaus
FT
3 – 0
Union Innsbruck
Union Innsbruck
8/30/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 6Sportplatz Prutz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Prutz / Serfaus62%
×Draw18%
Union Innsbruck20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prutz / Serfaus
2.59
Union Innsbruck
1.41

Prutz / Serfaus creates 84% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Prutz / Serfaus
2.20
Union Innsbruck
1.45

allows per match

Prutz / Serfaus
1.37
Union Innsbruck
2.98

finishing

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par
Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prutz / Serfaus ↓

Union Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Prutz / Serfaus or draw
80%
Prutz / Serfaus or Union Innsbruck
82%
Draw or Union Innsbruck
38%

Winning margin

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+
41%
Union Innsbruck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals
92%
Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals
73%
Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals
47%
Union Innsbruck 1+ goals
76%
Union Innsbruck 2+ goals
41%
Union Innsbruck 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)
76%
Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prutz / Serfaus at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Union Innsbruck away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.98 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prutz / Serfaus attack 2.20 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.59

Union Innsbruck attack 1.45 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Prutz / Serfaus scores more
62%
level
18%
Union Innsbruck scores more
20%

Prutz / Serfaus at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Prutz / Serfaus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Prutz / Serfaus 3–0 Union Innsbruck

Prutz / Serfaus beat Union Innsbruck 3-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Prutz in Prutz.