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Prutz / Serfaus vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Prutz / Serfaus
Prutz / Serfaus
FT
1 – 2
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
5/13/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Sportplatz Prutz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Prutz / Serfaus45%
×Draw22%
St. Johann in Tirol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prutz / Serfaus
1.91
St. Johann in Tirol
1.63

Prutz / Serfaus creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 85 away

creates per match

Prutz / Serfaus
2.20
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Prutz / Serfaus
1.37
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prutz / Serfaus ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Prutz / Serfaus or draw
67%
Prutz / Serfaus or St. Johann in Tirol
78%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
55%

Winning margin

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+
24%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals
85%
Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals
57%
Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals
30%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
80%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
48%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)
57%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prutz / Serfaus at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prutz / Serfaus attack 2.20 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Prutz / Serfaus scores more
45%
level
22%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
33%

Prutz / Serfaus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Prutz / Serfaus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prutz / Serfaus vs St. Johann in Tirol

St. Johann in Tirol beat Prutz / Serfaus 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Prutz in Prutz.