Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Prutz / Serfaus vs Mils — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Prutz / Serfaus
Prutz / Serfaus
FT
5 – 0
Mils
Mils
10/8/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 12Sportplatz Prutz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Prutz / Serfaus54%
×Draw20%
Mils27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prutz / Serfaus
2.37
Mils
1.64

Prutz / Serfaus creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 70 away

creates per match

Prutz / Serfaus
2.20
Mils
1.91

allows per match

Prutz / Serfaus
1.37
Mils
2.54

finishing

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par
Mils+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prutz / Serfaus ↓

Mils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Prutz / Serfaus or draw
73%
Prutz / Serfaus or Mils
80%
Draw or Mils
46%

Winning margin

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+
33%
Mils wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals
91%
Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals
68%
Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals
42%
Mils 1+ goals
81%
Mils 2+ goals
49%
Mils 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)
67%
Mils (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prutz / Serfaus at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Mils away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.54 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prutz / Serfaus attack 2.20 + Mils defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.37

Mils attack 1.91 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Prutz / Serfaus scores more
54%
level
20%
Mils scores more
27%

Prutz / Serfaus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Prutz / Serfaus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Prutz / Serfaus 5–0 Mils

Prutz / Serfaus beat Mils 5-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Prutz in Prutz.