Prutz / Serfaus 3–4 Ebbs: Result & Stats

Prutz / Serfaus

FT

3 – 4

Ebbs

6/11/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 29Sportplatz Prutz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Prutz / Serfaus49%

×Draw22%

Ebbs29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prutz / SerfausExpected goals in this matchEbbs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.50

Prutz / Serfaus

2.00

Ebbs

1.50

Prutz / Serfaus creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

2.20

creates per match

1.62

1.37

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Prutz / Serfaus

2.20

Ebbs

1.62

allows per match

Prutz / Serfaus

1.37

Ebbs

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par

Ebbs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prutz / Serfaus ↓

Ebbs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Prutz / Serfaus or draw

71%

Prutz / Serfaus or Ebbs

78%

Draw or Ebbs

51%

Winning margin

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+

28%

Ebbs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals

86%

Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals

59%

Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals

32%

Ebbs 1+ goals

78%

Ebbs 2+ goals

44%

Ebbs 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)

63%

Ebbs (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prutz / Serfaus at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Ebbs away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.80 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prutz / Serfaus attack 2.20 + Ebbs defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ebbs attack 1.62 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Prutz / Serfaus scores more

49%

level

22%

Ebbs scores more

29%

Prutz / Serfaus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Prutz / Serfaus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff