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Prudentópolis vs União PR — Paranaense - 2 2020

Prudentópolis
Prudentópolis
FT
1 – 1
União PR
União PR
9/18/2021Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Prudentópolis35%
×Draw28%
União PR37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prudentópolis
1.17
União PR
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Prudentópolis
1.00
União PR
1.33

allows per match

Prudentópolis
1.11
União PR
1.33

finishing

Prudentópolis+0.00on par
União PR+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prudentópolis ↓

União PR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Prudentópolis or draw
63%
Prudentópolis or União PR
72%
Draw or União PR
65%

Winning margin

Prudentópolis wins by 2+
14%
União PR wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Prudentópolis 1+ goals
69%
Prudentópolis 2+ goals
33%
Prudentópolis 3+ goals
11%
União PR 1+ goals
70%
União PR 2+ goals
34%
União PR 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Prudentópolis (draw refunded)
48%
União PR (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prudentópolis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

União PR away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prudentópolis attack 1.00 + União PR defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

União PR attack 1.33 + Prudentópolis defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Prudentópolis scores more
35%
level
28%
União PR scores more
37%

União PR at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "União PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prudentópolis vs União PR

Prudentópolis and União PR drew 1-1 in Paranaense - 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert in Prudentópolis, Paraná.