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Prudentópolis vs Iraty — League #1138 2026

Prudentópolis
Prudentópolis
FT
0 – 2
Iraty
Iraty
9/18/2024League #1138League #1138 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Prudentópolis44%
×Draw29%
Iraty27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prudentópolis
1.22
Iraty
0.89

Prudentópolis creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Prudentópolis
1.33
Iraty
1.11

allows per match

Prudentópolis
0.67
Iraty
1.11

finishing

Prudentópolis+0.00on par
Iraty+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prudentópolis ↓

Iraty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Prudentópolis or draw
73%
Prudentópolis or Iraty
71%
Draw or Iraty
56%

Winning margin

Prudentópolis wins by 2+
19%
Iraty wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Prudentópolis 1+ goals
70%
Prudentópolis 2+ goals
34%
Prudentópolis 3+ goals
12%
Iraty 1+ goals
59%
Iraty 2+ goals
22%
Iraty 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Prudentópolis (draw refunded)
62%
Iraty (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prudentópolis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Iraty away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prudentópolis attack 1.33 + Iraty defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Iraty attack 1.11 + Prudentópolis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Prudentópolis scores more
44%
level
29%
Iraty scores more
27%

Prudentópolis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Prudentópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1138: Prudentópolis 0–2 Iraty

Iraty beat Prudentópolis 2-0 in League #1138 on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert in Prudentópolis, Paraná.