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Prudentópolis U20 vs Paraná U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Prudentópolis U20
Prudentópolis U20
FT
1 – 4
Paraná U20
Paraná U20
5/3/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 8Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prudentópolis U2020%
×Draw19%
Paraná U2061%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prudentópolis U20
1.32
Paraná U20
2.38

Paraná U20 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Prudentópolis U20
1.00
Paraná U20
1.00

allows per match

Prudentópolis U20
3.75
Paraná U20
1.64

finishing

Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par
Paraná U20+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prudentópolis U20 ↓

Paraná U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Prudentópolis U20 or draw
39%
Prudentópolis U20 or Paraná U20
81%
Draw or Paraná U20
80%

Winning margin

Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+
8%
Paraná U20 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals
73%
Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals
38%
Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals
15%
Paraná U20 1+ goals
91%
Paraná U20 2+ goals
68%
Paraná U20 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Paraná U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prudentópolis U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Paraná U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prudentópolis U20 attack 1.00 + Paraná U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Paraná U20 attack 1.00 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Prudentópolis U20 scores more
20%
level
19%
Paraná U20 scores more
61%

Paraná U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Paraná U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prudentópolis U20 vs Paraná U20

Paraná U20 beat Prudentópolis U20 4-1 in Paranaense U20 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert in Prudentópolis, Paraná.