Prudentópolis U20 vs Iraty U20

Prudentópolis U20

CANC

18:30

Iraty U20

5/25/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 11Estádio Municipal Newton Agibert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Prudentópolis U2034%

×Draw19%

Iraty U2047%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prudentópolis U20Expected goals in this matchIraty U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.50

Prudentópolis U20

2.13

Iraty U20

2.50

Iraty U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

3.75

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Prudentópolis U20

1.00

Iraty U20

1.25

allows per match

Prudentópolis U20

3.75

Iraty U20

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Iraty U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prudentópolis U20 ↓

Iraty U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Prudentópolis U20 or draw

53%

Prudentópolis U20 or Iraty U20

81%

Draw or Iraty U20

66%

Winning margin

Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+

18%

Iraty U20 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals

88%

Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals

63%

Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals

35%

Iraty U20 1+ goals

92%

Iraty U20 2+ goals

71%

Iraty U20 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Iraty U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prudentópolis U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Iraty U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prudentópolis U20 attack 1.00 + Iraty U20 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Iraty U20 attack 1.25 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Prudentópolis U20 scores more

34%

level

19%

Iraty U20 scores more

47%

Iraty U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iraty U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff