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Provincial Ranco vs Deportes Valdivia — Copa Chile 2019

Provincial Ranco
Provincial Ranco
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
3/20/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal Carlos Vogel Meyer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Provincial Ranco29%
×Draw22%
Deportes Valdivia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Ranco
1.46
Deportes Valdivia
1.96

Deportes Valdivia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Provincial Ranco
1.67
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

allows per match

Provincial Ranco
2.67
Deportes Valdivia
1.25

finishing

Provincial Ranco+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Ranco ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Provincial Ranco or draw
51%
Provincial Ranco or Deportes Valdivia
78%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
71%

Winning margin

Provincial Ranco wins by 2+
13%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Provincial Ranco 1+ goals
77%
Provincial Ranco 2+ goals
43%
Provincial Ranco 3+ goals
18%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
86%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
58%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Provincial Ranco (draw refunded)
37%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Ranco at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Ranco attack 1.67 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.25 + Provincial Ranco defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Provincial Ranco scores more
29%
level
22%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
49%

Deportes Valdivia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Ranco vs Deportes Valdivia

Provincial Ranco beat Deportes Valdivia 4-3 in Copa Chile on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vogel Meyer in La Unión.