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Provincial Ovalle vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
3/11/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Diaguita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Provincial Ovalle43%
×Draw27%
Lautaro de Buin31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Ovalle
1.39
Lautaro de Buin
1.13

Provincial Ovalle creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

creates per match

Provincial Ovalle
1.26
Lautaro de Buin
1.09

allows per match

Provincial Ovalle
1.16
Lautaro de Buin
1.52

finishing

Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par
Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Ovalle ↓

Lautaro de Buin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Provincial Ovalle or draw
69%
Provincial Ovalle or Lautaro de Buin
73%
Draw or Lautaro de Buin
57%

Winning margin

Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+
20%
Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals
75%
Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals
40%
Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals
16%
Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
68%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
31%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)
58%
Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Ovalle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Ovalle attack 1.26 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Provincial Ovalle scores more
43%
level
27%
Lautaro de Buin scores more
31%

Provincial Ovalle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Provincial Ovalle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Ovalle vs Lautaro de Buin

Provincial Ovalle beat Lautaro de Buin 1-0 in Segunda División on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Diaguita in Ovalle.