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Provincial Ovalle vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Concón National
Concón National
5/5/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Diaguita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Provincial Ovalle37%
×Draw25%
Concón National38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Ovalle
1.37
Concón National
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Provincial Ovalle
1.26
Concón National
1.65

allows per match

Provincial Ovalle
1.16
Concón National
1.48

finishing

Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par
Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Ovalle ↓

Concón National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Provincial Ovalle or draw
62%
Provincial Ovalle or Concón National
75%
Draw or Concón National
63%

Winning margin

Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+
17%
Concón National wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals
75%
Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals
40%
Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals
16%
Concón National 1+ goals
75%
Concón National 2+ goals
41%
Concón National 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)
49%
Concón National (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Ovalle at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 31 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Ovalle attack 1.26 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Concón National attack 1.65 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Provincial Ovalle scores more
37%
level
25%
Concón National scores more
38%

Concón National at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Ovalle vs Concón National

Provincial Ovalle and Concón National drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Diaguita in Ovalle.