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Concón National vs Provincial Ovalle — Segunda División 2020

Concón National
Concón National
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle
5/30/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Concón National41%
×Draw28%
Provincial Ovalle31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concón National
1.26
Provincial Ovalle
1.04

Concón National creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Concón National
1.26
Provincial Ovalle
0.90

allows per match

Concón National
1.19
Provincial Ovalle
1.26

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par
Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Provincial Ovalle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Concón National or draw
69%
Concón National or Provincial Ovalle
72%
Draw or Provincial Ovalle
59%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+
18%
Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals
72%
Concón National 2+ goals
36%
Concón National 3+ goals
13%
Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals
65%
Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals
28%
Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)
58%
Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Provincial Ovalle away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Provincial Ovalle attack 0.90 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Concón National scores more
41%
level
28%
Provincial Ovalle scores more
31%

Concón National at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Concón National 1–0 Provincial Ovalle

Concón National beat Provincial Ovalle 1-0 in Segunda División on May 30, 2026.