Provincial Osorno 2–2 Linares Unido: Result & Stats

Provincial Osorno

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Linares Unido

5/21/2023

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Provincial Osorno46%

×Draw26%

Linares Unido28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchLinares Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.07

Provincial Osorno

1.46

Linares Unido

1.07

Provincial Osorno creates 36% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

1.64

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Linares Unido

1.07

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Linares Unido

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Linares Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Linares Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

72%

Provincial Osorno or Linares Unido

74%

Draw or Linares Unido

54%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

23%

Linares Unido wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

77%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

43%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

18%

Linares Unido 1+ goals

66%

Linares Unido 2+ goals

29%

Linares Unido 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

62%

Linares Unido (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Linares Unido away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Linares Unido defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Linares Unido attack 1.07 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

46%

level

26%

Linares Unido scores more

28%

Provincial Osorno at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff