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Linares Unido vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Linares Unido
Linares Unido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
4/17/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Fiscal de Linares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Linares Unido42%
×Draw25%
Provincial Osorno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linares Unido
1.47
Provincial Osorno
1.27

Linares Unido creates 16% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 43 away

creates per match

Linares Unido
1.35
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Linares Unido
1.29
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Linares Unido+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linares Unido ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Linares Unido or draw
67%
Linares Unido or Provincial Osorno
75%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
58%

Winning margin

Linares Unido wins by 2+
20%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Linares Unido 1+ goals
77%
Linares Unido 2+ goals
43%
Linares Unido 3+ goals
18%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
72%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
36%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Linares Unido (draw refunded)
56%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linares Unido at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linares Unido attack 1.35 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Linares Unido defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Linares Unido scores more
42%
level
25%
Provincial Osorno scores more
33%

Linares Unido at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linares Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Linares Unido 1–0 Provincial Osorno

Linares Unido beat Provincial Osorno 1-0 in Segunda División on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Linares in Linares.