Provincial Osorno 1–1 Lautaro de Buin

Provincial Osorno

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lautaro de Buin

10/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Provincial Osorno49%

×Draw25%

Lautaro de Buin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchLautaro de Buin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Provincial Osorno

1.58

Lautaro de Buin

1.08

Provincial Osorno creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

1.64

creates per match

1.09

1.07

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Lautaro de Buin

1.09

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Lautaro de Buin

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Lautaro de Buin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

74%

Provincial Osorno or Lautaro de Buin

75%

Draw or Lautaro de Buin

51%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

25%

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

79%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

47%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

21%

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

66%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

29%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

65%

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

49%

level

25%

Lautaro de Buin scores more

26%

Provincial Osorno at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Osorno vs Lautaro de Buin

Provincial Osorno and Lautaro de Buin drew 1-1 in Segunda División on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.

Provincial Osorno vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Provincial Osorno vs Lautaro de Buin