Provincial Osorno 3–1 D. Melipilla: Result & Stats

Provincial Osorno

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

D. Melipilla

3/1/2025

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Provincial Osorno39%

×Draw24%

D. Melipilla37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.54

Provincial Osorno

1.57

D. Melipilla

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.64

creates per match

2.00

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

D. Melipilla

2.00

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

D. Melipilla

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

63%

Provincial Osorno or D. Melipilla

76%

Draw or D. Melipilla

61%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

19%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

79%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

46%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

21%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

79%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

45%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

51%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + D. Melipilla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

D. Melipilla attack 2.00 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

39%

level

24%

D. Melipilla scores more

37%

Provincial Osorno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff